The Fluid Trader

Today the bulls had a good battle to victory.  The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 do confirm a short term uptrend today which allowed the bulls to come out and play! 

Dow Jones:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed signs of weakness in the first 5 minutes where there was a sell off in the Index.  As time went on, we can see that the Dow faded its losses and started the strong uptrend:

• We first see the downward sell off in the first 5 minutes
• Right before covering the losses, we see an uptrend confirmation with higher highs and higher lows.
• Look for signs of weakness if we break through the near term support of 12542
• Look for signs of strength if we break through the near term resistance of 12702

NASDAQ:

The NASDAQ had a strong uptrend after the downward gap this morning.  We saw prices break 2400 today with an open of around 2317, a 83 point intraday move upwards.  There were some key points that confirmed uptrend and solidified some intraday trend trading.  Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart:

• We can see a downward Gap
• We can see that the Gap was faded
• Just about when the Gap was faded, we had a confirmed uptrended seeing higher highs and higher lows.
• We have a Bollinger Band Squeeze play that we could have played until the end of day.
• Look for signs of weakness if we break through the near term support of 2375
• Look for signs of strength if we break through the near term resistance of 2403

S&P 500:

The S&P 500 had a similar look and feel in its chart as the Dow and NASDAQ. We first notice the selling/gap in the first 5 minutes and then we see the uptrend beginning.

• We see selling in the beginning.
• We then see a confirmation of an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
• Gap was faded
• Look for signs of weakness if we break through the near term support of 1367
• Look for signs of strength if we break through the near term resistance of 1385

Although the bulls won the day, the long term outlook is still bearish.

Have fun but be safe!

The Fed cut rates 50 bps today and the Dow’s rally was short lived.  In fact, the rally lasted about 60 minutes and had a rapid descent to close 37 pointslower.  Throughout the day, the Dow was trading flat and around 2:15 PM we see a break to the upside.  At about 3:15PM you start to see the rapid descent or the “avalanche”.  Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart:

Dow Jones Industrial:

• Bear Flag continues to form
• Near Term Resistance is 12487 (broken today with lackluster volume).
• Near Term Support is 12112
• May continue its downtrend after tagging the 20 period MA.

NASDAQ:

• Near resistance and had a similar open and close price (Doji).  Its quite possible that the prices may dip downwards in the next few trading days.
• Near term resistance is 2415
• Near term support is 2306
• Short Term Trend:  Down.  Intermediate Trend:  Down.  Long Term Trend:  Lateral

S&P 500:

• Looks Similar to the bear flag in the Dow.
• Near Term Resistance is 1368.  It was broken today on average volume but retreated back to 1355 for today’s close
• Near Term Support is 1322
• May continue its downtrend after tagging the 20 period MA.
• Short Term Trend: Down.  Intermediate Trend:  Down.  Long Term Trend:  Lateral/Down

Conclusion:

Although there was a short lived rally today, I believe that the bears are still winning across the board. 

Trade Safe!

What a day!  Today started off as a huge down day with the market shaving roughly 230 points in the first 5 minutes.  We then start seeing an uptrend forming with a Euphoric taste to it.  Let’s look at the chart below:

The Annotated chart tells the story of how we started with a 230 point drop.  You can see at about 12:45PM that we hit our low of the day under 11650.  Shortly after that we start to see higher highs a higher lows meaning an uptrend was forming.  This uptrend was a Euphoric Uptrend that I did not anticipate.  The Dow ended the day with a close of 12270, a 620 point intraday move!

Today was truly historic!  We want to becareful as this was 1 days action and as we see in the daily chart below, we are still in an overall downtrend.

We should look at what the markets should have in store for us in the next few days.  Remember, the FED meeting is next week and we should anticipate highly volatile days to come.

Conclusion:  I’m still bearish

 Be safe!

I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! Its been quite a wild ride this past year. I look back and I wonder how I actually survived it!

There has been many things going through my mind lately. I’m thinking about what direction I want to go this following year. As my previous post stated, I have been thinking about either Grad School or getting my CFA. Well another element has presented itself and has substituted the option of the CFA and that’s the CMT. I’ve been speaking to various people and most importantly, my mentors and found that the CMT (Charted Market Technician) is more my cup of tea. Its a no joke certification and has a series of 3 exams. I will see how things will pan itself out and I am seeking to find more details on how to get started!

I have been thinking about how I should structure this blog. I have decided that I will post charts that look interesting and also have a mid week and end of week market analysis. Remember, these are purely my opinions!

I hope everyone had a safe and happy New Year!