The Fluid Trader

Today we met up with the bears early on.  The bull flags we saw yesterday did not continue the uptrend today and we were met with Bear Flags in all the ETFs.

DIA:

Yesterday’s bull flag did not continue the Bull’s momentum today as the DIA traded down today.  We saw weakness early on with bear flags and a downtrend following.

• We opened above the Pivot Point but quickly formed a Bear Flag.
• The Downtrend was confirmed pretty early in the trading session to meet a Steep descending down slope.
• Price consolidated for about an hour to form another bear flag.
• We continued a downward trading session to close prices under support 1.
• A double bottom has formed at the end of the day.  Does this mean we will see possible strength tomorrow?

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/15/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 124.49
• Support 1 = 123.28.  Support 2 = 122.54.
• Resistance 1 = 125.23.  Resistance 2 = 125.23

QQQQ:

The Q’s found weakness from the beginning where it had a huge volume bar and a drop in price.  We then immediately see a bear flag and a downtrend form thereafter.

• We had a selloff in the first 5 minutes of trading with huge volume.
• A bear flag formed immediately after that and was met with a downtrend.
• We see price consolidate laterally at around 11:15PM and break downwards once again after about 1:00PM
• We see a double bottom starting to form at the end of day with prices closing below support 1.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/15/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 44.24
• Support 1 = 43.63.  Support 2 = 43.28
• Resistance 1 = 44.59.  Resistance 2 = 45.20

SPY:

SPY started trading laterally at the beginning of the session and formed a bear flag to take the ETF downwards for the rest of the day.

• We had lateral trading which was met by a bear flag.
• Price broke downward and formed a new downtrend.
• We had several bear flags during the day with subsequent downward momentum right after.
• SPY formed a double bottom and closed right above Support 1.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/15/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 135.65
• Support 1 = 134.31.  Support 2 = 133.44
• Resistance 1 = 136.52.  Resistance 2 = 137.86.

Today we saw a downtrend form early in the day and met the rest of the day with prices driving downwards.  We did however see double bottoms form at the end of the session in all 3 ETFs which could mean a possible change in direction tomorrow.  Let’s see what the market has in store for us and watch the Pivot Points!

 Be careful, its pretty volatile out there!

The ETF’s enjoyed a great bull day today and ended the day with a sign of continuation of the running of the bulls for the past 2 days. 

DIA:

The DIA gapped up at open and showed a bull flag early on in the trading hours to break upwards.  We closed the session with another bull flag and we are waiting to see what will happen the tomorrow.

• Price Gapped up at open way above the pivot point.
• We see a bull flag form to break upwards.
• Continual uptrend throughout the day
• The session ended with another bull flag.
• Volume was a little lower.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 02/14/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 125.09.
• Support 1 = 124.33.  Support 2 = 123.40.
• Resistance 1 = 126.02.  Resistance 2 = 126.78.

QQQQ:

The Q’s gapped up at the open of the session where it traded in a lateral channel and found strength and broke out past Resistance 1.

• The Q’s gapped up and traded in a lateral channel between resistance 1 and a support drawn in the chart
• Price broke above Resistance 1 around 1:10PM
• Price continued its uptrend to the end of the session.
• Notice how the 20 MA created a nice support for the Q’s

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 02/14/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 44.61
• Support 1 = 44.34.  Support 2 = 43.89
• Resistance 1 = 45.06.  Resistance 2 = 45.33

SPY:

SPY also exprienced a Gap up and formed a bull flag where it enjoyed a continued uptrend to end the day with another bull flag.

• Big gap up that completed or nearly completed a gap fade.  The Gap fade formed a bull flag.
• Price enjoyed a gradual upward trend the rest of the day.
• We closed with another bull flag.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 02/14/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 136.15
• Support 1 = 135.21.  Support 2 = 134.04.
• Resistance 1 = 137.32.  Resistance 2 = 138.26.

The bulls have been coming out to play the past few days.  Will the trend continue?  We have yet to see, however, we do see bull flags at the end of the trading session on 2 ETFs.  Let’s wait and see!

Trade Safely!

The Market found strength with a gap upwards at open but lost its steam towards the end of the session today. 

DIA:

The Diamonds opened with a Gap up with strong strength behind it.  The diminished a little with a bit of selling to close the session above Resistance 2 (highly bull).

• We see a gap up at the open of the session
• We see a strong upward drive in price in early trading.
• We see price in a lateral channel most of the day to break below it in the late afternoon.
• We close right above resistance 2 which was a great day for the bulls.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Wednesday, 02/13/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 123.82.
• Support 1 = 122.90.  Support 2 = 122.04.
• Resistance 1 = 124.68.  Resistance 2 = 125.60.

QQQQ:

We had a strong open with a bear flag that formed in the beginning of the session.  Price fell, consolidated, and dropped off a cliff right after the consolidation.  Let’s take a look.

• Beginning hour strength but formed a bear flag.
• Prices slowly trickled down.
• We saw a consolidation  happen around 12:40PM until about 3:00PM.
• Right after the consolidation, price fell off the cliff.
• There is a little rally in the last 4 bars with small volume.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Wednesday, 02/13/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 44.00
• Support 1 = 43.32.  Support 2 = 42.83
• Resistance 1 = 44.49.  Resistance 2 = 45.17

SPY:

There was a gap up to Resistance 1 where price found strength to trade above Resistance 2.  There was a consolidation that broke out below, only to find its close right around the support of the consolidation.

• Gap up at open with strength to the upside
• Consolidation starting around 12:40PM until around 3:20PM
• There’s a break of the consolidation to the downside.
• Price found some strength at the end of session and closed right around the consolidation’s support levels.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Wednesday, 02/13/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 135.02
• Support 1 = 133.72.  Support 2 = 132.46.
• Resistance 1 = 136.28.  Resistance 2 = 137.58.

The market had a strong running of the bulls today where we gapped up and stayed higher in trading than the previous close.  I noticed that the Pivot Points were not as useful today to find support and resistance but it did provide an excellent gauge on what the market sentiment was for today. 

Its truly a volatile market so be safe!

The market rose today in another volatile day of trading.   The volume was quite dull and it causes me to sit on the sidelines to see what’s to unfold.  Let’s take a look.

DIA:

The DIA traded between Support 1 and Resistance 1 in a volatile day.  Let’s take a closer look:

• We opened below the pivot point for a quick selloff
• We break past the support 1 line but start gaining strength
• We have a confirmed uptrend around 12:05PM
• We sustained a trading range between the Pivot Point and Resistance 1 ending the day up.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Tuesday, 02/12/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 121.89.
• Support 1 = 121.19.  Support 2 = 120.06 .
• Resistance 1 = 123.02.  Resistance 2 = 123.72.

QQQQ:

The Q’s traded up today between Resistance 2 and the Pivot Point.  Let’s take a closer look:

• The Q’s started forming an uptrend on Friday and continued that trend today
• The ETF traded between the Pivot point and Resistance the first half of the day.  We then see it break past Resistance 1, causing it to become the support line, and Resistance 2.
• Price started consolidating towards the end of the session and should break out at the beginning of tomorrow.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Tuesday, 02/12/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.94
• Support 1 = 43.66.  Support 2 = 43.26
• Resistance 1 = 44.34.  Resistance 2 = 44.62

SPY:

SPY traded in a broad range between Support 1 and Resistance 1 today in another volatile day of trading.  Let’s take a closer look:

• SPY sold off early in the session and tagged Support 1 and bounced off to find some strength.
• We see a confirmed uptrend around 12:05PM.
• We see price dance around between the Pivot Point and Resistance 1 at this and to the close of session.
• The ETF looks like it consolidated at the end of the session and we should see a break early tomorrow.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Tuesday, 02/12/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 133.34
• Support 1 = 132.45.  Support 2 = 131.15.
• Resistance 1 = 134.64.  Resistance 2 = 135.53.

The Indexes, ETFs, and market saw an overall up day.  We did not see huge volume spikes today which causes me to think that the bears are still dominant.  Why?  Well, in lateral and up days we see lackluster volume but in down days we see a spike in volume.  This causes me to believe that the bears have the strength still.  Let’s see what will unfold in the coming days.

Be Safe!

This week, we lost what we gained last week and we are starting to consolidate.  Let’s take a closer look.

Dow Jones:

Daily:

The Dow Jones Industrial index had a down week from its highs that it formed last week.  We also have a small consolidation (Possibly a triangular shaped one) forming.  We’ll have to keep a close eye out for what is to unfold in the following weeks.  Its possible to see a double bottom next week but we will not know until price reveals itself next week.  The sentiment remains very  bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a soon to be descending 200 MA. 

Weekly:

As we zoom out to see what is going on the in the weekly price action of the Dow, we see that the index pretty much erased all its gains from last week.  We are still in a fairly new confirmed downtrend but we have started to trade in a lateral channel. 

NASDAQ:

Daily:

The Nasdaq had a down week from its highs from last week also.  It does look like there is a triangular consolidation forming in the index where it bounced off the consolidation support and found a little strength in the last 2 days of trading.  Overall, we still are very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a soon to be descending 200 MA.  Let’s see what the next week will unfold.

Weekly:

As we take a zoom out, we see the Nasdaq erased what it gained this week.  We are still in a newly confirmed downtrend but we seem to be trading in a lateral fashion.  The 20 MA and the 50 MA have met each other at the end of this week and it will be interesting to see where we will end up with 1 more week to add to the mix. 

S&P 500:

Daily:

The S&P 500 had a similar response with both the Nasdaq and the Dow where we are seeing a triangular consolidation forming.  Let’s see where this consolidation takes us in the following week.  We are still very bearish in the market with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a soon to be descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

The weekly chart looks very similar to the Nasdaq’s weekly chart where we see the erasing of gains from the prior week.  We also see a lateral trading range in this timeframe.  Let’s see what next week has to tell us!  We are looking bearish in this timeframe with a newly confirmed downtrend and the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA. 

This week we saw all the gains from last week get erased this week.  Notice that the daily charts are showing a triangular consolidation occurring and a lateral consolidation starting to form in the weekly charts.  It will be interesting to see where we stand next week.  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Be careful and Trade Safely tomorrow!

Today we saw some fade the gap plays that met weakness in the midday to then find some strength towards the end of the trading day.  Let’s take a closer look and the DIA, QQQQ, and SPY.

DIA:

The Diamonds traded below the Pivot Point for the majority of the day.  We did have a break above the Pivot Point and below Support 1 but the trading range was usually between those two points.

• We see and opening Gap to the downside that was filled within the first 30 minutes of trading.
• Slight uptrend at beginning of session.
• Confirmed downtrend right around noon and continuation to the downside.
• We found some strength towards the afternoon session but closed weaker.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Monday, 02/11/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 121.90
• Support 1 = 120.92.  Support 2 = 120.10
• Resistance 1 = 122.72.  Resistance 2 = 123.70

QQQQ:

The Q’s confirmed the forming uptrend from yesterday to find weakness during most of the rest of the day.  The Q’s ended up finishing stronger towards the end.

• We see the uptrend confirmed in the first 5 minutes of trading.
• We are met with weakness in midday trading with a downward consolidation channel.
• We ended the session on strength with the Q’s closing above the Pivot Point and higher than yesterday’s close.
• The trading range was between Resistance 1 (not shown as it was above 43.8) and the Pivot Point which acted as support today.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Monday, 02/11/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.44
• Support 1 = 43.11.  Support 2 = 42.25
• Resistance 1 = 43.94.  Resistance 2 = 44.27

SPY:

Similar to the DIA, we see strength at the beginning of the session, weakness at midday, and then a bit of strength at the end of session.

• We see a gap at the open of the trading session which was filled by 11:00AM.
• We see weakness right after that in a downward channel where support 1 was tagged and slightly broken.
• We see some strength after the tag to end up closing below yesterday’s close and under the Pivot Point.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Monday, 02/11/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 133.13
• Support 1 = 132.04.  Support 2 = 131.01.
• Resistance 1 = 134.16.  Resistance 2 = 135.25.

The market is still pretty volatile and we don’t know where things will go the next bar!  You see strength, weakness, strength, and more weakness throughout the trading days lately.  I am happy to see that the Pivot Points are working out to see what the trading range will be for the day.  I’m pretty happy with them so far and will continue on with them!

Have a great weekend and becareful out there!

Trade Safely but be sure to have fun!

Today we see that the market was trading in the bearish range based on pivot points and support and resistance that were calculated the night before.  Let’s take a look at them individually.

DIA:

The DIA traded mostly below the pivot point which means that it was mostly bearish for the day.  It was a quite volatile day of trading today.

• We had a volatile day with clear reversals of trends.
• The trading range was mostly between the Pivot Point and Support 1.  We did have a break above the pivot point and price almost reached Resistance 1.
• The close of the day ended right around the Pivot Point.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/08/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 122.46
• Support 1 = 121.53.  Support 2 = 120.32
• Resistance 1 = 123.67.  Resistance 2 = 124.60

QQQQ:

The Q’s traded between Support and Resistance but in more bearish territory during the day.

• Like the DIA, we had a volatile day with a few reversals.
• The trading range was between resistance and support.  It was below the pivot point for most of the day so the sentiment would be bearish.
• The close ended with the ETF looking to start a new uptrend.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/08/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.02
• Support 1 = 42.25.  Support 2 = 42.25
• Resistance 1 = 43.89.  Resistance 2 = 44.66

SPY:

SPY traded nicely between the support and resistance.  We can see clear trend reversals along with a good deal of volatility.

• Like the previous 2 charts, we see a volatile day with clear reversals of trends
• Price traded within the range of resistance and support.  Most of the trading was below the Pivot point and so there was more of a bearish sentiment.
• We ended the session with a new uptrend.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/07/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 133.48
• Support 1 = 132.18.  Support 2 = 130.42.
• Resistance 1 = 135.24.  Resistance 2 = 136.54.

Its interesting to see how the Pivot Points are working out.  As I document this more, I see that we are getting a good picture on how this calculation can truly help out in trading.  It does seem to give us a little advantage of where the trading ranges are.  Let’s keep a close eye on it and see how it keeps on panning out.

Trade Safely!

First of all, an apology for an absent post yesterday.  I was out of town yesterday and did not come back until late.  So here’s a post for today!

A consistant downtrend occurred today throughout the markets.  It looks as though the markets were poised to move upwards in the early hours but hit a ceiling and continued yesterday’s downtrend.

DIA:

We see a double bottom which signaled a sign of stength and saw prices rising only to hit a ceiling and start its downward trend.

• We see a double bottom form (between end of session yesterday and beginning of session today) to signal strength.

• Price rose until around 11:20AM

• Downtrend is confirmed around 12:40AM.  The DiA starts trading in a downward channel.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 2/7/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 122.66
• Support 1 = 121.40.  Support 2 = 120.55
• Resistance 1 = 123.51.  Resistance 2 = 124.77

QQQQ:

We see strength in the beginning of the session but see a bear flag form.  We then see a steep downward tumble in the Q’s.

• We see strength from the start of the session, however, we see a bear flag forming.
• Around 12:25PM we see a confirmed downtrend.
• We see a continued selloff in a downward channel similar but steeper than the DIA.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 2/7/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.25
• Support 1 = 42.33.  Support 2 = 41.85
• Resistance 1 = 43.73.  Resistance 2 = 44.65

SPY:

Once again, we see strength with a double bottom and saw prices driving upwards and then price hit a ceiling and traded downard.

• We see a double bottom form from end of session yesterday and beginning of session today.
• Price moved upwards
• A confirmed downtrend happened around 12:15PM
• The SPY traded in a downward trend within a channel.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 2/7/08, for SPY to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 133.57
• Support 1 = 131.89.  Support 2 = 130.73.
• Resistance 1 = 134.73.  Resistance 2 = 136.41.

Its been interesting watching the markets unfold.  Today is a prime example of how you cannot predict how the market moves and what trend it will have.  The best thing for us to do is learn from it on a daily basis.  Its better to hone your skills and see if you notice patterns forming that trigger a move.  This is what I like to call The Art of Technical Analysis.

Until later, Trade Safely!

Today we had a downtrend happening in the overall equities market.  Let’s take a closer look.

DIA:

We see a small double top form around noon today after the DIA moved below the pivot Point that we established on Friday (127).  After the double top, we see a downward channel form for the lower close.

• We see the decline in price going below the Pivot Point of 127 that was established on Friday.  We see that price bounced off the Support 1 of 126.39 that we also established on Friday.  We have a good idea that we will be somewhat lower than Friday’s close.
• We see a double top form around noon for more bearish confirmation.
• We see a channel form with price going down.  And once you are in a trend, the more like the trend will continue.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Tuesday, 2/4/08, for DiA to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 126.42
• Support 1 = 125.58.  Support 2 = 125.14
• Resistance 1 = 126.86.  Resistance 2 = 127.70

QQQQ:

Price tagged resistance (Pivot Point established on Friday) and started its downhill descent.

• Notice the Double Top at the end of Friday’s Session.  The downtrend confirmed today.
• We see price tag resistance at around 11:30AM and then continued its downtrend.
• We see price play within the predetermined range between the Pivot Point and the Support 1

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Tuesday, 2/4/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 45.17
• Support 1 = 44.73.  Support 2 = 44.50
• Resistance 1 = 44.50.  Resistance 2 = 45.84

SPY:

Price tagged resistance (Pivot Point) twice to form a small double top and price drove down steadily. 

• We notice Price started downward below the pivot point to indicate weakness
• Price made a double top at the pivot point to confirm more weakness
• We confirm a stronger downtrend and see price steadily goind downward.
• Close is below Support 1.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Tuesday, 2/4/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 138.31
• Support 1 = 137.33.  Support 2 = 136.65
• Resistance 1 = 138.99.  Resistance 2 = 139.97

Today we see a confirmed downtrend in all 3 of these markets.  Will the Bears continue on their conquest tomorrow or will the bulls see a little bit of relief?  Look to the pivot points to see if there will be weakness or strength in the markets if the price ends below (weakness) or above (above) the pivot point.

Once again, Trade Safely!

It seems as if the tides are slowly changing after taking a look at the intermediate and long term charts of the markets.  Let’s examine them together.

Dow:

After reviewing the daily chart for the Dow, it seems to me that there is a new uptrend forming and the price bars broke through the 20 period MA.  It has already made a higher high and a higher low but I will not be fully convinced until price breaks above 12930, the near term resistance level.

When you zoom out into the weekly charts we see that the Dow is still in a downtrend.  The last week made a valiant bull rush and made 650+ gain from its lowest to highest points in the week.  The 20 & 50 period MA did not cross, in fact, the 20 period MA seems as if it leveling off (lateral).

NASDAQ:

The NASDAQ daily chart seems to be trading in a channel between 2320 and 2410.  Friday’s bar did break past the resistance and tagged the 20 period MA to show signs of strength.  Its too early to see if this will continue to create a new uptrend.  We do see higher highs and a higher low but we have yet to break past the point with conviction. 

When looking at the weekly charts, we see that we are still in a confirmed downtrend.  Like the Dow, we had a strong push by the bulls in the previous week.  The 20 and 50 Period MA did not touch and the 20 MA is not in such a vertical downward dive and seems to be leveling a little more.  So far a good sign of upward movement.

S&P 500:

The daily chart is telling us several things.  If you look at all Moving Averages (20, 50, 200), we see that they are leveling off to make more of a lateral movement coming off from a definite downtrend.  This means that there is strength showing and that the S&P 500 is Neutral.  If you take the pure price route, you see that we confirmed an uptrend on Thursday and Friday by breaking the higher lows and higher highs.  We can wait for the MAs to start moving upwards for further confirmation.

The weekly chart is telling us a similar story as the Dow.  We are still in a downtrend in the long term but the bulls had a strong victory in the previous week.  The 20 & 50 MAs did cross, however, they too are now moving towards a lateral direction.  If the next week shows strength, we will probably see these MAs crossing once again. 

We had an interesting week where clearly the Bulls are starting to win this market over.  It will be interesting to see what the next week has to share with us.  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Uptrend/Lateral
NASDAQ - Lateral/slight uptrend
S&P 500 - Uptrend/Lateral

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Downtrend
NASDAQ - Downtrend
S&P 500 - Downtrend

Be careful and Trade Safely!