The Fluid Trader

We had an interesting week in the 3 indexes where we saw up and down days forming a triangular consolidation on the daily charts.  We did see slight gains in the Dow and S&P 500 and a slight loss in the Nasdaq.  Let’s take a closer look.

Dow Jones:

Daily:

The Dow Jones Industrial index continues its triangular consolidation as it builds more pressure.  You can see that price is still contrained in the triangle and it is closing.  It’ll be interesting to see where we fall next week in terms of this price pattern.  The sentiment of the index remains bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

As we zoom out to see what is going on the in the weekly price action of the Dow, we see that the index had another slightly up week.  Volume is dipping as price is still in a somewhat lateral trading range (starting to create an ascending triangle).  The 20 MA just crossed below the 50 MA going downward.  We are still in a fairly new confirmed downtrend.  Let’s watch how price will move next week and to see if an ascending triangle is being formed.

NASDAQ:

Daily:

The triangular consolidation continues to form in the index.  Price is building more pressure in this condolidation and we’ll see what will happen when it does breakout.  Overall, we still are very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

As we take a zoom out, we see the Nasdaq had a small loss this week.  We are still in a newly confirmed downtrend but we seem to be trading in a lateral fashion with price breaking below the support and volume is descending.  The 20 MA and the 50 MA have crossed each other towards the downside.

S&P 500:

Daily:

The S&P 500 is still forming the Triangular consolidation and like the other indexes, the price is building much more pressure.  It will be interesting when we see a breakout.  We are still very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

The S&P 500 was able to manage a gain this week from the previous week’s close.  We see price forming more in an Ascending Triangle and the volume descending in the previous weeks.  We are looking bearish in this timeframe with a newly confirmed downtrend and the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA.  The 200MA is still continuing its ascent, however.

We saw gains for the week in the Dow and S&P 500 and a loss in the Nasdaq.  Notice that the daily charts are continuing with the triangular consolidation and a new ascending triangle forming in the Dow and S&P 500 with a lateral consolidation continuing to form in the Nasdaq in their weekly charts.  We should see a breakout happen sometime this week! Stay tuned and find out!  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Be careful and Trade Safely Tomorrow!

We were able to eke out some gains this week and we see a consolidation continuing to form in the daily charts of the indexes.  Let’s take a closer look.

Dow Jones:

Daily:

The Dow Jones Industrial index continues its triangular consolidation as it builds more pressure.  The sentiment of the index remains very  bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

As we zoom out to see what is going on the in the weekly price action of the Dow, we see that the index eke out some gains for this week.  The 20 MA just crossed below the 50 MA going downward.  We are still in a fairly new confirmed downtrend and we are still trading in a small lateral channel.

NASDAQ:

Daily:

The triangular consolidation continues to form in the index.  Price is building pressure in this condolidation and we’ll see what will happen in the breakout.  Overall, we still are very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

As we take a zoom out, we see the Nasdaq had a small gain this week.  We are still in a newly confirmed downtrend but we seem to be trading in a lateral fashion.  The 20 MA and the 50 MA have crossed each other towards the downside.

S&P 500:

Daily:

The S&P 500 is still forming the Triangular consolidation and like the other indexes, the price is building pressure.  We are still very bearish in the market with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

The S&P 500 was able to manage a gain this week from the previous week’s close.  We see price continue to form a lateral trading range.  We are looking bearish in this timeframe with a newly confirmed downtrend and the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA.

We were able to see gains for this week on the 3 indexes above.  Notice that the daily charts are continuing with the triangular consolidation on the daily charts and a lateral consolidation continuing to form in the weekly charts.  It will be a 4 day trading week next week and I’m interested to see if the pressure cooker of the consolidations will continue or if we will see a breakout.  Stay tuned and find out!  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Be careful and Trade Safely on Tuesday!

This week, we lost what we gained last week and we are starting to consolidate.  Let’s take a closer look.

Dow Jones:

Daily:

The Dow Jones Industrial index had a down week from its highs that it formed last week.  We also have a small consolidation (Possibly a triangular shaped one) forming.  We’ll have to keep a close eye out for what is to unfold in the following weeks.  Its possible to see a double bottom next week but we will not know until price reveals itself next week.  The sentiment remains very  bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a soon to be descending 200 MA. 

Weekly:

As we zoom out to see what is going on the in the weekly price action of the Dow, we see that the index pretty much erased all its gains from last week.  We are still in a fairly new confirmed downtrend but we have started to trade in a lateral channel. 

NASDAQ:

Daily:

The Nasdaq had a down week from its highs from last week also.  It does look like there is a triangular consolidation forming in the index where it bounced off the consolidation support and found a little strength in the last 2 days of trading.  Overall, we still are very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a soon to be descending 200 MA.  Let’s see what the next week will unfold.

Weekly:

As we take a zoom out, we see the Nasdaq erased what it gained this week.  We are still in a newly confirmed downtrend but we seem to be trading in a lateral fashion.  The 20 MA and the 50 MA have met each other at the end of this week and it will be interesting to see where we will end up with 1 more week to add to the mix. 

S&P 500:

Daily:

The S&P 500 had a similar response with both the Nasdaq and the Dow where we are seeing a triangular consolidation forming.  Let’s see where this consolidation takes us in the following week.  We are still very bearish in the market with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a soon to be descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

The weekly chart looks very similar to the Nasdaq’s weekly chart where we see the erasing of gains from the prior week.  We also see a lateral trading range in this timeframe.  Let’s see what next week has to tell us!  We are looking bearish in this timeframe with a newly confirmed downtrend and the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA. 

This week we saw all the gains from last week get erased this week.  Notice that the daily charts are showing a triangular consolidation occurring and a lateral consolidation starting to form in the weekly charts.  It will be interesting to see where we stand next week.  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Be careful and Trade Safely tomorrow!

It seems as if the tides are slowly changing after taking a look at the intermediate and long term charts of the markets.  Let’s examine them together.

Dow:

After reviewing the daily chart for the Dow, it seems to me that there is a new uptrend forming and the price bars broke through the 20 period MA.  It has already made a higher high and a higher low but I will not be fully convinced until price breaks above 12930, the near term resistance level.

When you zoom out into the weekly charts we see that the Dow is still in a downtrend.  The last week made a valiant bull rush and made 650+ gain from its lowest to highest points in the week.  The 20 & 50 period MA did not cross, in fact, the 20 period MA seems as if it leveling off (lateral).

NASDAQ:

The NASDAQ daily chart seems to be trading in a channel between 2320 and 2410.  Friday’s bar did break past the resistance and tagged the 20 period MA to show signs of strength.  Its too early to see if this will continue to create a new uptrend.  We do see higher highs and a higher low but we have yet to break past the point with conviction. 

When looking at the weekly charts, we see that we are still in a confirmed downtrend.  Like the Dow, we had a strong push by the bulls in the previous week.  The 20 and 50 Period MA did not touch and the 20 MA is not in such a vertical downward dive and seems to be leveling a little more.  So far a good sign of upward movement.

S&P 500:

The daily chart is telling us several things.  If you look at all Moving Averages (20, 50, 200), we see that they are leveling off to make more of a lateral movement coming off from a definite downtrend.  This means that there is strength showing and that the S&P 500 is Neutral.  If you take the pure price route, you see that we confirmed an uptrend on Thursday and Friday by breaking the higher lows and higher highs.  We can wait for the MAs to start moving upwards for further confirmation.

The weekly chart is telling us a similar story as the Dow.  We are still in a downtrend in the long term but the bulls had a strong victory in the previous week.  The 20 & 50 MAs did cross, however, they too are now moving towards a lateral direction.  If the next week shows strength, we will probably see these MAs crossing once again. 

We had an interesting week where clearly the Bulls are starting to win this market over.  It will be interesting to see what the next week has to share with us.  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Uptrend/Lateral
NASDAQ - Lateral/slight uptrend
S&P 500 - Uptrend/Lateral

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Downtrend
NASDAQ - Downtrend
S&P 500 - Downtrend

Be careful and Trade Safely!