The Fluid Trader

I was reviewing my charts today when I saw AAPL making a cup & handle formation.  The handle of course is a bull flag which broke out of it channel on 04/15/08.  I want to see if it does make a measured move upwards to around 181.  The reason for that because price created a low on 3/17/08 with a “flagpole” movement of 37 that ran into the bull flag. 

 Let’s keep an eye on AAPL!

We saw another triple digit day on the Dow with a 228 point gain, a 61 point gain in the Nasdaq, and a 24 point gain on the S&P 500.  The catalyst was earning reports of major companies like Citi Group and Google.  Citi Group’s report wasn’t a surprise and we found that Google blew the analysts out of the water.  Google drove the tech heavy Nasdaq today with a big gap up that wasn’t quite expected!

Its interesting to see what else will happen in this time of earnings season.

Today we saw the market gap up to sustain their gains throughout the day.  We saw the DIA sustain a lateral trading range for most of the day and the broke through around 1:15PM today.  There were better than expected earnings reports that from Intel, JP Morgan Chase, and Coca-Cola which spurred on the rally.  It should be rather interesting to see what will happen in the markets during this earning season. 

Let’s see what the markets have in store for us for the rest of the week!

Question: Should I continue with posting pivot point analysis on the blog?

Hello All!

I’m back from a somewhat long hiatus.  My mind was driven away from this blog and I’ve decided that it has gone too far!  So I’m back and ready to go.

During my “vacation”, the markets were doing some amazing things. We gained 300+ in a day and we would lose 300+ in a day.  The volatility and the confusion in the markets make it difficult for swing traders like me to decide where to go unless its intra-day.  I do believe that we are trading in a consolidation at the current time which we hope it will break to the upside.  We’ll see what happens!

Thanks for coming and I will continue my analysis soon!

- The Fluid Trader

The QQQQ traded above the Pivot Point for most of the day today.  We saw a downward gap that was eventually faded within the hour to be met by a double top to see prices fluctuate down and then up.

Let’s take a closer look:

• Price Gapped down at the open of the session to be faded within the hour.
• After the gap fade, we see price consolidate laterally for a bit to break out upwards.
• Immediately after the break, we see a double top form.
• Price fell past the Pivot point to bounce back upwards.
• We end the day with a Bear Flag but with price above the previous close.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Thursday, 02/287/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 44.14
• Support 1 = 43.82.  Support 2 = 43.35
• Resistance 1 = 44.61.  Resistance 2 = 44.61

Here’s a quick look at the Daily chart for the QQQQ:

As we look at the daily charts for the QQQQ, we see that price is still consolidating in a triangular way and it is getting closer to a breakout.  It will be interesting to see where price will go from here.

Let’s keep an eye on the Pivot Points tomorrow for the daily action and let’s look at the key level of about 44.5 for a breakout upwards and 43.5 for a breakout downwards.

Until tomorrow, becareful out there and trade safely!

Today was surely a day where the bulls came out to play. 

DIA:

We had a strong upward momentum today in price where we could have run with the bulls for most of the day and would have made a nice trade.

• The DIA traded flat for the first hour & half where it had a lateral consolidation.
• Price brokeout upwards.  It was a nice ride for anyone who went long with the bollinger band squeeze and breakout trade.
• Price formed a bear flag between 2PM-3PM.
• Price dipped a little to close higher for the day.

SPY:

SPY had a similar looking chart to DIA.  It was a nice run up by the bulls today which allowed for us to have a nice trade.

• Price traded in a lateral fashion with a lateral consolidation.
• Price broke out upwards at around 10:50AM.
• A Bear flag formed between 2PM-3PM.
• Price slipped at the end of day to close higher.

QQQQ:

The Q’s had a gap to open the session which was filled when price confirmed and uptrend.  Price continued trading upwards until the last hour of trade.

• Open with a gap down.
• The gap was filled and Uptrend was confirmed.
• Price continued driving upwards and formed a bear flag from 2PM-3PM.
• Price dropped but closed positive for the day.

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Wednesday, 02/27/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.97
• Support 1 = 43.46.  Support 2 = 42.86
• Resistance 1 = 44.57.  Resistance 2 = 45.08

It was apparent that the bulls won the session today.  We did have a little bit of weakness at the end but the majority of the day did work out some great trades.  We did break out of the triangular consolidation (upward breakout) in the Dow and S&P 500 in the daily charts as my previous post indicates.  Lets see what happens tomorrow to see if this upward momentum continues.

Until then, be safe and happy trading.

Today we see the Dow and S&P 500 continue their break out of their consolidation with an upward momentum. 
DOW

The Dow Jones Industrial broke out of its consolidation yesterday with an upward thrust.  We continue that breakout with low volume today and as you can see with the chart below, the price bar is completely out of the consolidation today. Let’s see if this breakout continues tomorrow for more confirmation. 

S&P 500

The S&P 500 also broke out of its channel with average volume.  The breakout occurred yesterday and continued today.  Like the Dow, we should wait until tomorrow for more confirmation if the breakout is real.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq continues to trade in its triangular consolidation.  It looks like it will continue building pressure for a day or so and break out soon.  Let’s keep a close eye on it.

I would like to wait 1 more day to see if the breakout is a true one and if it does continue tomorrow, then I will feel that it is more confirmed for the DOW and the S&P 500.  We still are in a consolidation with the Nasdaq but we should be able to see what will come of it soon. 

Signs of a upward breakout is good and welcomed by the bulls.  Let’s see how this pans out!

Becareful out there!

We had an interesting week in the 3 indexes where we saw up and down days forming a triangular consolidation on the daily charts.  We did see slight gains in the Dow and S&P 500 and a slight loss in the Nasdaq.  Let’s take a closer look.

Dow Jones:

Daily:

The Dow Jones Industrial index continues its triangular consolidation as it builds more pressure.  You can see that price is still contrained in the triangle and it is closing.  It’ll be interesting to see where we fall next week in terms of this price pattern.  The sentiment of the index remains bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

As we zoom out to see what is going on the in the weekly price action of the Dow, we see that the index had another slightly up week.  Volume is dipping as price is still in a somewhat lateral trading range (starting to create an ascending triangle).  The 20 MA just crossed below the 50 MA going downward.  We are still in a fairly new confirmed downtrend.  Let’s watch how price will move next week and to see if an ascending triangle is being formed.

NASDAQ:

Daily:

The triangular consolidation continues to form in the index.  Price is building more pressure in this condolidation and we’ll see what will happen when it does breakout.  Overall, we still are very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

As we take a zoom out, we see the Nasdaq had a small loss this week.  We are still in a newly confirmed downtrend but we seem to be trading in a lateral fashion with price breaking below the support and volume is descending.  The 20 MA and the 50 MA have crossed each other towards the downside.

S&P 500:

Daily:

The S&P 500 is still forming the Triangular consolidation and like the other indexes, the price is building much more pressure.  It will be interesting when we see a breakout.  We are still very bearish with the moving averages showing the 20 MA below the 50 MA, all of which is below a now descending 200 MA.

Weekly:

The S&P 500 was able to manage a gain this week from the previous week’s close.  We see price forming more in an Ascending Triangle and the volume descending in the previous weeks.  We are looking bearish in this timeframe with a newly confirmed downtrend and the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA.  The 200MA is still continuing its ascent, however.

We saw gains for the week in the Dow and S&P 500 and a loss in the Nasdaq.  Notice that the daily charts are continuing with the triangular consolidation and a new ascending triangle forming in the Dow and S&P 500 with a lateral consolidation continuing to form in the Nasdaq in their weekly charts.  We should see a breakout happen sometime this week! Stay tuned and find out!  In the meantime, here is a summary:

Intermediate Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Long Term Trend:
Dow - Down
NASDAQ - Down
S&P 500 - Down

Be careful and Trade Safely Tomorrow!

Let’s take a look at the ETF’sfor today.

DIA:

The DIA continued its downward Trend and traded in a lateral consolidation for most of the day to breakout upwards to close with a positive.

• Price continued its downward consolidation that started yesterday.
• This was met with a lateral consolidation that lasted for the better part of the day.
• Price broke furiously upwards out of this consolidation with large volume and leveled off at close.

Price was consolidating for most of the day and wasn’t doing anything exciting until the end of day where there was a massive buying power to end the day.  It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday.

SPY:

SPY had a similar configuration of DIA where the downward trend continued meeting the lateral consolidation to have a super breakout towards the end of the day.

• Price continued its downward trend from yesterday.
• We see price consolidating for most of the day in a lateral fashion.
• Price Broke out upwards with a vengence as if it didn’t want to be held down!

Like the DIA, price didn’t do anything exciting today until it broke out at the end of the session to close with a positive.

QQQQ:

We saw the Q’s continue its downward trend to consolidate and close higher.

• Price continued in its downward consolidation that started yesterday.
• We then have price moving in a lateral consolidation for most of the day.
• We see price breakout upwards to close higher than yesterday’s close.

The Q’s followed the patterns of the previous ETFs and had a huge burst of buying pressure at the end.  Let’s see what Monday has in store for us!

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Monday, 02/25/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.32
• Support 1 = 42.95.  Support 2 = 42.23
• Resistance 1 = 44.04.  Resistance 2 = 44.41

So we had a bland day of channel trading until the end where we had a burst of buying energy.  It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday!

Be safe and happy trading!

We saw steady less volatile day with price pointing downward for the day.  Let’s take a closer look.

DIA:

We saw the DIA start with a Gap up that was faded early in the trading session.  We then saw a steady downtrend to have it close lower than the previous day’s close.

• We had a gap up that was faded within an hour’s timeframe.
• We have a confirmed downtrend that met a bear flag.  The price fell right after the breakthrough.
• We see price consolidating until the end of the day where price tagged the resistance levels in the last bar.

Its a possibility that the consolidation will continue for a little to break through or we may open with a gap tomorrow.  Let’s tune into tomorrow’s price action to see where we go from here.

SPY:

This chart is very similar to the one we see for the DIA.  We have a Gap that was faded early which was met with a downtrend.

• We see a Gap that was faded early in the session.
• We confirm a downtrend which was met with a bear flag.
• We have a long consolidation for the rest of the day and then we see price tag the resistance line at the end of day.

The consolidation is quite a long one and will probably be broken soon (if not by a gap then a breakthrough).

QQQQ:

We had a big gap at the beginning of the session where we met a double top and prices fell from there.

• Price had a gap up at open.
• A Double Top formed where price met a downtrend.
• We had several bear flags that formed and price confirmed its bearish sentiment after the formations.
• Price ended the day in a bull flag formation. 

Let’s see what happens tomorrow!

Pivot Points and Price Targets (Supports and Resistance) for Friday, 02/22/08, for QQQQ to look out for:

• Pivot Point = 43.78
• Support 1 = 43.09.  Support 2 = 42.65
• Resistance 1 = 44.22.  Resistance 2 = 44.91

I will only be providing Pivot Point analysis on the QQQQ as I favor this ETF over the others and trade it more. 

It was interesting how the last few days we had clearer signals and less volatility.  It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow to end the week!

Until then, have a great evening and trade safely!